Stock index futures were down slightly Monday with eyes on the upcoming FOMC meeting.
S&P futures (SPX) –0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures (NDX:IND) -0.3% and Dow futures (INDU) -0.1% were lower.
It is “hard to see how the week could be much busier given we have the following highlights,” Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid said. “Today sees a 3yr and 10yr US Treasury auction plus the NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.”
“Tomorrow sees the all-important US CPI and a 30yr Treasury auction (after a very bad one last month). Wednesday sees a fascinating FOMC meeting and US PPI. Thursday sees US Retail Sales and policy meetings from the ECB, SNB and BoE. Finally, Friday brings the latest global flash PMIs and China’s main monthly data dump. There are plenty of other releases but these are likely to be the primary market moving events. For a full list, see the day-by-day calendar of events at the end as usual.”
The 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) rose 1 basis point to 4.26%. The 2-year yield (US2Y) rose 2 basis points to 4.74%.
“Markets have got way ahead of the Fed in terms of pricing cuts for next year, so do they try to rein them in or acknowledge the direction of travel?” Reid said. “The Fed is still likely to be more of a slow oil tanker than a speedboat but will probably acknowledge that barring a unexpected surprise, the hiking cycle is over but will conclude that it’s premature to talk about cuts at the moment.”
“The dot plot will likely show 50bps of cuts by YE 24, which would leave the end-2024 dot 25bps lower than it was in September.”